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Forecasting is a tricky business at the best of times.

They say that if you were to simply guess the weather for the next day you’d be right 50% of the time. Not a bad strike rate eh? Maybe that’s what they do? Or just cover all angles in their summary so they get it 100% right. Now that is a good strike rate!

Taking this into the betting environment it is of course impossible to cover all possible outcomes and make a profit unless you’re using the Arbitrage route.

I’m sure that even if you were to choose at random a selection in a market with just ‘2’ possible outcomes you would be right 50% of the time the longer you do it.

Unfortunately, it’s the prices on offer and exchange commissions that prevents us from profiting by betting blind! Damn – There’s me thinking this game is easy!

To gain our edge in efficient markets we can deploy some appropriate staking plans and use that as our weapon if looking for a simple priced based strategy. Preferably one that offers some slight but sensible increase in stakes after a losing outcome.

I do stress the word ‘sensible’ here and not martingale staking or any of that  nonsense.

The staking also has to be strictly based on the strategies historical win/lose pattern that should be analysed using reliable and well recorded historical data. Without any accurate data collection we are simply peeing in the wind when it comes to apportioning an appropriate staking plan, Put simply, we have to stake the odds firmly in our favour from the get go before embarking on our mission.

The strategy itself also must be able to obtain a slight edge at level stakes before considering any form of loss recovery. A good staking plan will not miraculously turn a losing system into a winning one, and if attempting to do so then you are really putting your financial neck on the line.

A well thought out staking plan however can improve on level stake gains and also give a comfort feel when you see regular returns going back into your overall pot as a result of recouping some of the previous losses.

One such method that uses gradual stake recovery is my ‘Stake Small Win Big’ football method where we look at ways to take advantage of key in-play stats that surprisingly many overlook which does amaze me when the object is to make money and anything that can help that cause surely has to be used?

Many of you may already have downloaded this freebie and well done if you have! It’s a method where more often than not we can cover our small liability and then BANG we can hit on a nice win! Like the one below sent in by a member of my Quick-fire Betting Profit course;

You can see the strategy in full with my compliments below and do let me know how you get on.